Short-term forecasting is probabilistic while long-term forecasting is deterministic. I find the latter easy, even though most experts argue it’s impossible.
Because there are so many variables that influence markets in the short term, I always consider two scenarios… and I turn to two newsletters for some additional insights: Andrew Pancholi at markettimingreport.com and Stan Harley at harleymarketletter.com.
Considering their research, the charts, and my own extensive work, it looks like a good time for a setback after a straight-up rally from the December 26 lows. That was the biggest correction since the one in late 2011, over Greece and the euro crisis.
Before we rang in 2019, the broad markets were down around 20% and the Nasdaq was down 24%, marking the beginning of the Dark Window opportunity I’ve been preaching about.
But nothing goes up – or down – in a straight line. This rally looks like the first wave up, with two more major thrusts still ahead. In fact, the next wave is likely to be as strong as this one was, making substantial new highs by mid-summer. Then we could see S&P 3,500, Dow 33,000, and Nasdaq 10,000 before this bubble finally blows!
Stan Harley has recently commented that it’s a classic Gann pattern of three tops here. That pattern is much more likely to correct next before exploding again to the upside… exactly what I’m expecting for the Dark Window in the next several months.
Most bubbles go out in an orgasmic straight-up rise to major new highs – not a rolling three top scenario like this one. We saw the first more orgasmic-style top in January 2018, then a correction. Up next was the all-time high in September. Then another correction.
Now we’re back up again, retesting those highs in a third top…
Harley was looking for mid-April to be a short-term turn point, and Andy has some key turn points here as well. But he expected it would be a correction low to buy into. Now he sees it as a high. His most likely scenario is a correction into mid-May. That would be the time to “load up the trucks.”
I would see that scenario most likely going back to recent lows of around 2,722 on the S&P 500. It could keep edging up in its near-term channel I outline first, but not likely past the all-time highs of 2,941 back in September. A break of 2,880 near term would suggest this correction is beginning.
After such a sharp run-up, the next correction could be sharper and deeper. Recall that, for the S&P 500, the line in the sand through its lows back to 2009 would be around 2,347 to 2,350. That is definitely not the most likely scenario at this point.
For now, volume of buying is drying up. I need to see how deep a correction we get here to better gauge credible scenarios for the finale of the Dark Window.
I’ll keep watching and give you my best insights on when to consider adding to your bullish positions, especially in the leading tech stocks that Adam’s model is favoring again…