Since the bubble started bursting back in December, I’ve been a bitcoin bear near term. I saw the crypto likely following the internet on about a 22.5-year lag (half my 45-year Innovation Cycle).
It starts off with a short, extreme bubble, crashes and THEN builds into a major industry in the decades that follow, or by around 2035 for bitcoin on that internet track.
The blockchain revolution underlying it is a different story. I view it as the second wave of the internet now that it’s mature and mainstream. It has the potential to make the internet faster, more efficient, and, most important, more secure.
Security has become a big problem as we move to the “Internet of Things.” Kevin Ashton is our keynote speaker at our Irrational Economic Summit this year in Austin, TX (October 25-27). He coined the term “Internet of Things,” so he has incredible insights into this new world.
Another person with incredible insights, particularly into all things bitcoin, is Michael Terpin – and he too will be speaking at the conference. He’s a true veteran of the cryptocurrency movement.
Michael’s involved heavily in promotion consulting, ICO (initial coin offering) launches, and major personal crypto investment since 2009.
Last year he had to broadcast in to our Irrational Economic Summit from Burgundy, France. He’s a very busy man, speaking around the world on this hot topic. This year we’re getting him live, in Austin.
He recently told me that he thinks we could see bitcoin reach $25,000 by 2021!
He reckons that if I’m right about a global meltdown in the years ahead, then that environment will soar the most as they’re the antidote to the top-down fiat currency system that central banks have so manipulated.
And as you know by now, I love everything that’s bottoms-up! Block chain is that in spades. That is part of the new “network revolution” that’s just really starting in business organization and finance.
So, despite my bearish views on bitcoin near term as a natural bubble that’s bursting, here’s a chart that shows the alternative bullish case for that cryptocurrency very much in line with Terpin’s view…
Note that this chart goes back a few more years. That’s important as it shows an explosive first bubble into late 2013. It looks small compared to this recent bubble, but surged 16 times in five months from $70 to $1,124 and then crashed 64% to $400 in the next five months, ultimately down to $200 or 82% by early 2015!
This has been a bubble market from the beginning.
So, the million-dollar question now is: does this end up down 82% like last time, or down 93% like the first internet bubble, before the more rational long-term boom comes?
Four years after that first bubble burst we saw the second bubble peak at near $20,000 in late 2017. That would be the typical strong third wave in Elliott Wave patterns.
Thus far, bitcoin is holding up better than the first internet bubble burst in 2000, and one of the few better than my bubble model would suggest. So, that could be saying something, and it could be gearing to find more lasting support around $5,500 or so in a fourth-wave correction.
If prices near that level can hold in the coming months, then we could see a fifth-wave bubble surge in the years just ahead before a more meaningful peak in this early stage.
And when would be the most logical peak? Four years after the last one, just as the 2017 bubble peak was four years after the 2013 one… so by late 2021 just as Terpin forecasts!
That would also be squarely in line with the most likely period for the next and final stock bubble crash and global financial crisis: late 2019-2022, and possibly sooner.
If that’s the case, then the key issue will be: Do cryptos shine in that environment, or are they another bubble to burst more dramatically (while retaining their long-term potential)?
Holding near $5,000 for the coming months will be an important feather in the cap of the bullish scenario here.
Michael has so much more to share with you on his views of where bitcoin and blockchain is going over the next few months and years. Make sure you’re at the Irrational Economic Summit this year to hear him out.