Harry S. Dent Jr. studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of his chosen profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning new science of finance where identifying and studying demographic, technological, consumer and many, many other trends empowered him to forecast economic changes.

Since then, he’s spoken to executives, financial advisors and investors around the world. He’s appeared on major news programs and leading publications worldwide. Harry has written numerous books over the years. In his book The Great Boom Ahead, published in 1992, he stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated boom of the 1990s. That same year he authored two consecutive best sellers: The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster). In his recent bestseller, The Sale of a Lifetime: How the Great Bubble Burst of 2017 Can Make You Rich (2016), Harry looks at the upcoming economic crisis and reveals how it could be the single greatest chance to build wealth we’ll ever see and how we can capitalize on such a unique and historical opportunity. He explains how many of the richest Americans in history have used this same kind of opportunity to quickly accumulate incredible amounts of money, in a short period of time.

Dent's Weekly Column & Talk Radio Appearances

Correction Ahead or Major Crash?

I always consider two scenarios when doing any kind of short-term forecasting. In short, it’s because there are so many more variables that could affect...

The Bullish Case for Bitcoin: Irrational Economic Speaker Says the Crypto Will Hit $25,000 in 2021

Since the bubble started bursting back in December, I’ve been a bitcoin bear near term. I saw the crypto likely following the internet on...

To Peak, or Not to Peak…?

We’ve been in the final bubble rally since the bottom in early 2016. It’s in a channel – as is typical – and is about...

Signs of a Broader Emerging Market Crisis, and a Market Top?

I loved the title of an article in the Boston Globe yesterday: “How Can You Tell There’s a Recession Coming? No One Sees It.” I...

Smart Money Is Going Against This Rally

I’ve been bullish for obvious reasons since Trump won the election. There’s no way to fight big tax cuts for companies. It’s welfare for businesses. And it’s...

The Dollar Is Pivotal in a Confused Market

Stocks have been moving sideways all year after a blow-off top of late January 2018. But the long sideways correction bodes more for a final...

Is a Major Global Divergence Forming?

In this unprecedented bubble – now extended by unprecedented central bank stimulus – we’ve been looking for a major divergence to signal that this...

The Dollar Is Finally Breaking Up Again

I’ve been predicting, since early 2016, that gold had hit a major bottom in late 2015 at $1,060 and should have a bear market...

Stocks Could Break Up One More Time or Break Down and We’re Done

Let’s look at what’s going on in the markets… 10-year Treasury bonds have seen the clearest trend of all the market, as we have been...

There Are Two Types of Ends to Bubbles

I have been warning now for many months that U.S. markets are in what is called a “rising bearish wedge,” which tends to be...

The Dent Method

The Dent Method has the only documented record of success at forecasting long-term economic trends based on the study of and changes in demographic trends and their impact on our economy and the markets. It works by showing how predictable consumer spending patterns, when combined with demographic trends, allow us to forecast the economy years or even decades in advance. Our method is based on five key precepts, which are:

    • Predictable spending patterns at different ages and stages of life: As we move through life, we change our spending in very predictable ways. These predictable spending patterns impact our economy, business, and product trends. Everything from the demand for potato chips and real estate to inflation rates, cycles of innovation, economic growth, immigration rates, and domestic migration — locally, nationally and globally – are impacted. By analyzing this information we can successfully forecast how spending will change in the years and decades to come.
    • Who spends what in the economy and its demographic impact: Personal consumption, or what people do as consumers, represents about 70% of the Gross Domestic Product. That means that how people as consumers spend money is the largest influence on our economic health. As larger groups of consumers age and spend more, the economy grows. When large groups in the population pass their peak stage in spending, this leads to less spenders and slows down the economy.
    • Our birth rate and the immigration adjusted birth index: New generations come along about every 40 years. As they age, they move through predictable earning, spending and productivity cycles. The peaks and troughs of these cycles can be forecasted by moving forward the birth index (which we adjust for the births of all past and future projected immigrants) by the appropriate number of years.
    • Our Spending Wave: If you look at U.S. history, we have had extended booms for 26 to 28 years followed by busts for 12 to 14 years. This happens because new generations come along about every 40 years. As mentioned above, as they age, they move through predictable earning, spending and productivity cycles. We forecast the peaks and troughs of these cycles by moving the birth index forward by the appropriate number of years to estimate peak spending.
    • The Inflation Indicator: Economists think that inflation is largely a monetary phenomenon. It’s not. In reality, inflation is the economy’s means of financing not only the new, young generations that will become highly productive in the future, but also the new technologies these new generations bring. The combination of a slowing economy from declining Baby Boom spending after 2010 and a slowing of workforce expansion will create a deflationary slowdown in the U.S until 2023.