Everyone knows by now that I don’t see gold as the savior, the safe haven, for investors. It was that in the inflation season from 1968 to 1982.
In fact, the Baby Boom made that the greatest inflation season in modern history as they entered the workforce. And gold was one of the greatest ways to play that long recession. In that environment, it was the ultimate hedge against inflation.
But we are not in an inflationary season today.
We only saw minor inflation in 2009, due to the massive money printing done to counter deflation and debt deleveraging. Without it, deflation would have been rampant. And gold is NOT the way to play a deflationary trend.
After forecasting it would crash, I noted that gold was severely oversold in late 2015, when it hit $1,050. I expected it would rally back towards between $1,365 and $1,428 before heading down again.
Well, it might have run out of steam with the recent correction after hitting $1,346 on February 19.
Gold looks to be running through an extended sideways triangle pattern since late 2015. The final E-wave (in the Elliott Wave pattern) has either peaked just below the top trend line – as often occurs – or it could run up one more time test that trendline or even break just above it to as high as $1,428.
The broader commodity index has already been down as much as 68% from its 2008 top and has rallied as well. It looks to have at least one more major wave down into 2020.
Commodities were the first major financial asset bubble to burst, and it’s likely they’ll be the first to bottom. But that doesn’t mean they’ll suddenly take off into another sustained bull market just yet. This will only start to happen after 2022, after which we’ll enjoy the next commodity boom into its peak around 2039 on the 30-year cycle.
And gold should start to shine again, starting around 2022 or 2023.
Before then, though, I still have a bottom target of $700 per ounce for gold. That’s the bottom it reached after the 2008 crash. Seeing as bubbles often deflate back to their starting point, I’d expect gold could sink that low again.
If gold makes another run ahead, up to that that resistance level at $1,428, it will be time to get out.