Remember December, when stocks surprised with their first 20%-plus correction since late 2013? It’s less than two months ago, but with the way markets have been behaving, it feels like much longer. Especially after the surprise rally we’ve enjoyed as it retraced 60% to 70% of that Christmas correction. I think this is a sign […]
Markets opened down sharply yesterday. The S&P 500 was at -1% as I penned this. The Dow was down 1.25%. Nasdaq in the red at -1.29%. Nothing to change my current forecast of that Dark Window for most of this year. In fact, I’ve been bullish on the stock market since Trump’s surprise victory in […]
In the last month I’ve been talking about the growing and now most likely Dark Window scenario for stocks, given that we haven’t seen that infamous 40% crash in the first-three-months scenario that finally declares a bubble is over. That is, we could see a final blow-off rally for stocks that could take the Nasdaq […]
I’ll tell you, the market rally from early 2017 into late January did look like the perfect blow-off rally and bubble top to me. It was exponential. It broke out of a steep channel into a classic “throw-over” rally. Everything you would look for to know. But it turned out not to be. By April […]
The bull market run since March 2009, when unprecedented money printing became the economic driver du jour, recently become the longest in history without a 20%-plus correction. Past stock bubbles have lasted five years; six years max. This one is now 9.8 years old – off the charts. We have the unprecedented major tax cut […]
During the last several months, I’ve been looking at two scenarios for this unprecedented stock bubble. Scenario 1 involved a peak in late September, but I’ve now ruled that out. The following chart is one of a few I’ve been tracking to compare this with past initial bubble crashes. I want to see if any […]
A big reason for the violent market crash on Wednesday and Thursday – where the Dow Jones lost close to 1,400 points – was concerns over weakness in China. China’s government had to reduce reserve requirements as a monetary stimulus last week and the markets here and in Asia took it as a sign that the […]
A while ago I shared with you a chart showing a reverse-head-and-shoulders pattern for 30-year Treasury bond yields that strongly suggested an acceleration up to around 4.3% if there was a clear break of the 3.22% level. We got that break in spades last week. Here’s the chart of that break out. I’ve been warning […]
I always consider two scenarios when doing any kind of short-term forecasting. In short, it’s because there are so many more variables that could affect outcomes in the short term that, really, things could go either way. So, with markets opening in the red yesterday morning after closing out last week near all-time highs, here’s an […]
Since the bubble started bursting back in December, I’ve been a bitcoin bear near term. I saw the crypto likely following the internet on about a 22.5-year lag (half my 45-year Innovation Cycle). It starts off with a short, extreme bubble, crashes and THEN builds into a major industry in the decades that follow, or […]
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