Bitcoin seems to be rising from the grave. Signs of life began to appear on March 24, when the crypto currency, which it not a currency at all, began to move higher from $3,924 per coin. It surged $787 into April Fool’s Day, subsided, then pushed skyward again in the last 24 hours, where it was at $5,245 as I wrote this.
It’s leaped 62% from its low on December 14.
Unsurprisingly, traders and analysts calling for the next bitcoin bubble are crawling out of the woodwork. 71-year old trader, Peter Brandt, is calling for the crypto to hit $50,000 within the next two years. My target is $32,000 by end of this year, as the crypto rides the Dark Window stock market rally into its final, blow-off peak. After that, I expect the currency to retrace some of those gains as the biggest bubble of our lifetime deflates.
It’s all part of the pattern (and cycle) that Peter is not considering…
Walking a Well-Worn Path
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies created the steepest financial bubble of all time… even greater than the first, infamous tulip bubble, which saw the price of tulip bulbs bloom to more than 1,000 times their value.
Bitcoin even bubbled more than its predecessor, the internet, which went up about seven times in 1.5 years, between late 1998 and early 2000. The crypto rocketed 15-times higher in just seven months! After the internet hype phase, technology stocks crashed 95%. After the recent crypto bubble, bitcoin shed just 84% of its value. It did that after the first bubble into late 2013. So, this hype phase is NOT likely over yet.
Now it looks like the bottom is in for the last dramatic bubble, and like I’ve been saying for several months now, those Dark Window opportunities are upon us.
To This Point and Beyond
Bitcoin looked like it was basing at around $6,000 into October 2018. Then it suddenly collapsed from $6,500 to $3,170 between early November and mid-December 2018.
Reports were that large investors were selling to purposefully drive the market down. I believe it!
Now the opposite seems to be happening. Big buyers seem to be stepping in and the market is racing up sharply.
It would take a break above $6,542, the minor peak before bitcoin broke down sharply last November, to confirm a break out to the upside again.
If you want to take small bets here, you could start buying on pullbacks near term. The higher probability move would be to buy on a clear break above that $6,542 level, at say $7,000.
If stocks bubble as I expect they will, bitcoin and cryptos should bubble much faster! If this scenario occurs, then the hype phase should be over sometime between 2020 and 2021, when Bitcoin could lose something like 95%+. It is on this critical point that Peter and I differ markedly… although I do expect the crypto to eventually embark on a long-term boom that should last into 2036 or so.
Should the crypto follow the path I foresee, that second crash will provide the real long-term buying opportunities for the leading surviving coins like bitcoin and for real blockchain application companies. Image: PIXABAY