I’ve talked about why the trade deal has been challenging and likely doomed in the end. I also talked about the impact the “sudden” collapse in negotiations has had on the markets. Investors thought a deal was imminent. Now, they see it’s nowhere in sight… and they’re storming the exits. Regardless of the reason, a […]
About Harry Dent, Economic Forecaster
Harry S. Dent, Jr. received his MBA from Harvard Business School, where he was a Baker Scholar and was elected to the Century Club for leadership excellence. His newest book, ZERO HOUR, Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage released mid-November 2017. Today, he uses the research he developed from years of hands-on business experience to offer readers a positive, easy-to-understand view of the economic future by heading up Dent Research. Harry has written numerous books over the years. In his book The Great Boom Ahead, published in 1992, he stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated boom of the 1990s. That same year he authored two consecutive best sellers: The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster).
Short-term forecasting is probabilistic while long-term forecasting is deterministic. I find the latter easy, even though most experts argue it’s impossible. Because there are so many variables that influence markets in the short term, I always consider two scenarios… and I turn to two newsletters for some additional insights: Andrew Pancholi at markettimingreport.com and Stan […]
Bitcoin seems to be rising from the grave. Signs of life began to appear on March 24, when the crypto currency, which it not a currency at all, began to move higher from $3,924 per coin. It surged $787 into April Fool’s Day, subsided, then pushed skyward again in the last 24 hours, where it […]
The S&P 500 peaked in late September at 2,941. It then crashed into late December, down to 2,347. Ouch… But, before thinking about calling “the end,” I looked to see if the pattern followed the steep trajectory of past bubble bursts, like those in early 2000 and late 1929. It didn’t, and so I began […]
Everyone knows by now that I don’t see gold as the savior, the safe haven, for investors. It was that in the inflation season from 1968 to 1982. In fact, the Baby Boom made that the greatest inflation season in modern history as they entered the workforce. And gold was one of the greatest ways […]
Remember December, when stocks surprised with their first 20%-plus correction since late 2013? It’s less than two months ago, but with the way markets have been behaving, it feels like much longer. Especially after the surprise rally we’ve enjoyed as it retraced 60% to 70% of that Christmas correction. I think this is a sign […]
Markets opened down sharply yesterday. The S&P 500 was at -1% as I penned this. The Dow was down 1.25%. Nasdaq in the red at -1.29%. Nothing to change my current forecast of that Dark Window for most of this year. In fact, I’ve been bullish on the stock market since Trump’s surprise victory in […]
In the last month I’ve been talking about the growing and now most likely Dark Window scenario for stocks, given that we haven’t seen that infamous 40% crash in the first-three-months scenario that finally declares a bubble is over. That is, we could see a final blow-off rally for stocks that could take the Nasdaq […]
I’ll tell you, the market rally from early 2017 into late January did look like the perfect blow-off rally and bubble top to me. It was exponential. It broke out of a steep channel into a classic “throw-over” rally. Everything you would look for to know. But it turned out not to be. By April […]
The bull market run since March 2009, when unprecedented money printing became the economic driver du jour, recently become the longest in history without a 20%-plus correction. Past stock bubbles have lasted five years; six years max. This one is now 9.8 years old – off the charts. We have the unprecedented major tax cut […]
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